Friday, February 14, 2014

Wall St shorts economists

I've been remiss in not providing links to my last two Bloomberg pieces. Active web surfers may have run across them, but if not -- below is the full text of this essay from January. It looks at the question -- first raised here by Noah Smith -- of why, if DSGE models are so useful for understanding an economy, i.e. for gaining insights which can be had in no other way, no one on Wall St. actually seems to use them. Good question, I think:

****

In 1986, when the space shuttle Challenger exploded 73 seconds after takeoff, investors immediately dumped the stock of manufacturer Morton Thiokol Inc., which made the O-rings that were eventually blamed for the disaster. With extraordinary wisdom, the global market had quickly rendered a verdict on what happened and why.

Economists often remind us that markets, by pooling information from diverse sources, do a wonderful job of valuing companies, ideas and inventions. So what does the market think about economic theory itself? The answer ought to be rather disconcerting.

Blogger Noah Smith recently did an informal survey to find out if financial firms actually use the “dynamic stochastic general equilibrium” models that encapsulate the dominant thinking about how the economy works. The result? Some do pay a little attention, because they want to predict the actions of central banks that use the models. In their investing, however, very few Wall Street firms find the DSGE models useful.

I heard pretty much the same story in recent meetings with 15 or so leaders of large London investment firms. None thought that the DSGE models offered insight into the workings of the economy.

This should come as no surprise to anyone who has looked closely at the models. Can an economy of hundreds of millions of individuals and tens of thousands of different firms be distilled into just one household and one firm, which rationally optimize their risk-adjusted discounted expected returns over an infinite future? There is no empirical support for the idea. Indeed, research suggests that the models perform very poorly.

Economists may object that the field has moved on, using more sophisticated models that include more players with heterogeneous behaviors. This is a feint. It isn’t true of the vast majority of research.

Why does the profession want so desperately to hang on to the models? I see two possibilities. Maybe they do capture some deep understanding about how the economy works, an “if, then” relationship so hard to grasp that the world’s financial firms with their smart people and vast resources haven’t yet been able to figure out how to profit from it. I suppose that is conceivable.

More likely, economists find the models useful not in explaining reality, but in telling nice stories that fit with established traditions and fulfill the crucial goal of getting their work published in leading academic journals. With mathematical rigor, the models ensure that the stories follow certain cherished rules. Individual behavior, for example, must be the result of optimizing calculation, and all events must eventually converge toward a benign equilibrium in which all markets clear.
A creative economist colleague of mine told me that his papers have often been rejected from leading journals not for being implausible or for conflicting with the data, but with a simple comment: “This is not an equilibrium model.”

Knowledge really is power. I know of at least one financial firm in London that has a team of meteorologists running a bank of supercomputers to gain a small edge over others in identifying emerging weather patterns. Their models help them make good profits in the commodities markets. If economists’ DSGE models offered any insight into how economies work, they would be used in the same way. That they are not speaks volumes.

Markets, of course, aren’t always wise. They do make mistakes. Maybe we’ll find out a few years from now that the macroeconomists really do know better than all the smart people with “skin in the game.” I wouldn’t bet on it.

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    Financing can help you get your project funded, loan financing by providing you with yearly renewable leased bank instruments. We work directly with issuing bank lease providers, this Instrument can be monetized on your behalf for 100% funding:
    For further details contact us with the below information.
    Name:Stephen Donald
    Email:genericfinancialmanagementltd@gmail.com
    Skype:genericfinancialmanagementl
    Whats App Number:+12138739099

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  34. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease/sales, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers. We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description. The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee/Standby Letter of Credit will be paid after the delivery of the MT760, Description OF INSTRUMENTS: 1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC) 2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 5M MIN and Eur/USD 10B MAX (Ten Billion EURO/USD). 3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay's bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt. 4. Age: One Year, One Month 5. Purchasing Price: 32% of face value plus 2% commission fees Leasing Price: 4% of Face Value plus 1% commission fees. 6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift. 7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760 8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days. We are ready to close leasing/Buying with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me Name : PAUL DAVID Email: pauldavid20001@gmail.com Skype: P_david123@outlook.com whatsapp:+447921551354

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  35. We are major/Direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, POF, MTN, Bonds and CDs and this financial instruments are specifically for lease and sale.We are one of the leading Financial instrument providers with offices all over Europe. 
    we always deliver on time and precision as Set forth in the agreement. You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs, project financing, Credit line enhancement, Corporate Loans (Business Start-up Loans or Business Expansion Loans), Equipment Procurement Loans (Industrial Equipment, Air crafts, Ships, etc.) as well as other financial instruments issued from AAA Rated bank such as HSBC Bank Hong Kong, HSBC Bank London, Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, Barclays Bank , Standard Chartered Bank and others on lease at the lowest available rates depending on the face value of the instrument needed, Our Terms and Conditions are reasonable. 

    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS: 
    1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG)/SBLC (Appendix A) 
    2. Total Face Value: 10M MIN to 50B MAX USD or Euro 
    3. Issuing Bank: HSBC, Deutsche Bank Frankfurt, UBS or any Top 25 . 
    4. Age: One Year, One Day 
    5. Leasing Price: 4 1% 
    6. Sale Price: 32 2% 
    7. Delivery by SWIFT . 
    8. Payment: MT103-23 
    9. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days 

    We are ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me direct.   

    Name - Davy George.
    Email - info.fpfpuk@gmail.com
    whatsapp - +12532685421

    ReplyDelete
  36. We offer certified and verifiable bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable of taking up time bound transactions.

    BANK INSTRUMENT PARTICULARS

    Instruments :Fully Cash Backed, Fresh Cut Bank Guarantee(Standard ICC format)
    Age :One (1) years and One (1) day
    Rate :Leasing: 3+2, Purchase: 32+2
    Currency :USD/Euro
    Bank :Top A Rated banks
    Amount :As Advised by Beneficiary
    Intermediary Fees : Two Percent (2%) of Face Value payable by Beneficiary
    Tranches : As per agreed tranches schedule
    Delivery : Swift MT799/MT760
    Payment : Swift MT103 (Wire Transfer)

    Contact Name: Alex James
    Email:signetukfinanceplc@gmail.com
    SKYPE:signetukfinanceplc@hotmail.com

    ReplyDelete

  37. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC, DTC IPIP, MT103/202 GPI CASH TRANSFER and MTN which are specifically for lease, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project (s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffer driven offers.

    We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description.

    The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee will be paid after the delivery of the MT760,

    DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENTS:

    1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC) (Appendix A)
    2. Total Face Value: Eur 5M MIN and Eur 10B MAX (Ten Billion USD).
    3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt.
    4. Age: One Year, One Month
    5. Leasing Price: 6% of Face Value plus 2% commission fees to brokers.
    6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift.
    7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760
    8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.

    We are ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me direct. Email: sweeneymich70@gmail.com

    Regards,
    Sweeney
    Skype:sweeneymich70@gmail.com
    Email:sweeneymich70@gmail.com
    We Offer Lease and Purchase BG,SBLC,DTC IPIP, MT103/202 GPI CASH TRANSFER AND MTN

    ReplyDelete
  38. GENUINE BANK GUARANTEE (BG) AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC) FOR BUY/LEASE
    AT THE BEST RATES AVAILABLE

    I am direct to a provider who has recently issued banking instruments for a couple of my clients the provider is 100% check-able you can do your due diligence on them. I personally know the provider.


    We offer certified and verifiable bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable
    of taking up time bound transactions.

    FOR LEASING OF BG/SBLC
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    LEASING FEE = 4%+2%

    FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC
    PRICE = 32%+2%
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M

    Our BG/SBLC Financing can help you get your project funded, loan financing by providing you with yearly. RWA ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days

    Name : Scott james

    Email : inquiry.securedfunding@gmail.com
    Skype : Inquiry.securedfunding@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete

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  40. Dear sir,

    I am a Direct Mandate to a genuinely renowned Investment Finance Company offering Cash & Asset Backed Financial Instruments on Lease and Sale at the best rates and with the most feasible procedures.

    Instruments offered can be put in all forms of trade and can be monetized or discounted for direct funding. For Inquiry contact.

    Email: longmornprojectfinances@gmail.com

    Skype: longmornprojectfinance@hotmail.com

    Whatsapp : +1(661)262-9225

    Warm Regards
    Simon Federman

    ReplyDelete

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  42. We help to deliver bank instruments in the form of BG/SBLC strictly in adherence with the following set of procedures.Kindly review the procedures and inform on your readiness to proceed. What face value do you need ?We issue from top rated banks and we are RWA ready.TRANSACTION DESCRIPTION:1. Instrument: Standby Letter of Credit (SBLC)2. Total Face Value: Buyers Request3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank4. Age: One Year One Day5. Lease Fee: 4%+1* Selling Fee: 32%+16. Delivery: Bank to Bank Swift MT799 and/or MT7607. Payment: MT1038. Hard Copy: By Bank Bonded Courier within 7 banking days after delivery of Swift.TRANSACTION PROCEDURE:1. Seller and Buyer execute, sign and initial this Deed of Agreement, which thereby automatically becomes a full commercial recourse contract to be lodged by both parties for initiation of Swift Transmission.2. Within three (3) banking days after both parties sign the Agreement, Seller will issue a Notarised signed and sealed Corporate Refund Recourse Undertaking duly endorsed by the Sellers legal Department to the Buyer guarantying to refund to all cost incurred by buyer as the transmission/administrative charges for the transmission of Pre-Advice via Swift MT799 or BG/SBLC via Swift MT760 or both after due execution of the contract and in case of failure on the Lessor’s side the Notarised signed and sealed Corporate Refund Recourse Undertaking guarantees that the buyer refunds completely the transmission/administrative fees in addition to a the penalty for failure of performance being 1% of the total face value of BG/SBLC.3. Within three (3) working days after the buyer receives contract documents including the invoice and refund undertaking from the Lessor, the buyer will make payment by direct wire transfer into the seller’s provided bank coordinates for the receiving of the bank transmission/administrative charges the bank transmission/administrative fees for the Pre-Advice via Swift MT799 or BG/SBLC via Swift MT760 or both as the case maybe in the amount of Euro/USD X,XXX.XX.4. Within two (2) banking days after confirmation of receipt of payment of the bank transmission/administrative fees charges for the BG/SBLC via Swift MT760 or Pre-Advice via Swift MT799 or both in Seller’s bank account, the Seller will deliver the Pre-Advice or BG/SBLC via Bank to Bank confirmation of Swift MT799 or MT760 to the Lessee’s banker including the hard copy of the BG/SBLC via bank bonded courier in Seven (7) banking days.5. The sellers bank proceed with total swift and upon delivery, confirmation and verification of BG/SBLC by MT760 in the Buyers’s nominated account and BG/SBLC hard copy in the Buyer’s nominated bank.Buyers then sends out the buying fees 32 %by Swift MT103 to the seller account deducting the initially paid bank transmission/administrative fees and pay the brokers their commission fee of 1 % of total Face Value by wire transfer within thirty (30) days maximum upon delivery, confirmation and verification of BG/SBLC by MT760 in the buyer’s nominated account and BG/SBLC hard copy in the Buyer’s nominated bank.6. Should the Buyer not deduct the bank transmission/administrative charges from Buying fees paid, the seller shall refund bank charges to buyer by direct wire transfer within three (3) banking days upon payment of the buying fees.Should the buyer default to pay the buying fees to the Seller and the brokers commission fees as agreed after 30 banking days of confirmation of BG/SBLC MT760 in buyer’s bank account, Seller will instruct the issuing bank to put a claim on the BG/SBLC thereby forcing the Buyers’s bankers to return the BG/SBLC MT760 to the issuing Bank.Looking forward to accepting our terms and procedure then we can establish a long term business relationship.contact email - info.fufupuk@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
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  45. (BG) AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC) FOR BUY OR LEASE AT THE BEST AVAILABLE RATES
    Dear Sir/Ma,
    We offer certified and verifiable financial bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable
    of taking up time bound transactions.
    FOR LEASING OF BG/SBLC
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    LEASING FEE = 4%+2%
    FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC
    PRICE = 32%+2%
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    Our BG/SBLC Financing can help you get your project funded,
    loan financing by providing you with yearly.
    RWA ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days
    I will be glad to share with you our working procedures.
    Name : Scott james
    Email : inquiry.securedfunding@gmail.com
    Skype : Inquiry.securedfunding@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  46. FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED provides a full financial planning service to both the commercial and domestic markets. At IQ FINANCE PLC we believe that financial planning is about two things: creating wealth and protecting wealth. These two objectives are at the heart of everything we do. And, as a member of FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED Services, we give you a small-company service but with a large-company set up – the best of both worlds.  
    You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs as well as in signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges and any other turnkey project(s) etc. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable. 
    Leasing Price : 6%+2%
    Buying Price: 38%+2%

    Contact us for more details on our terms and procedure of transaction.

    NAME  :Jason Edward
    EMAIL :financialagentltd@gmail.com
    SKYPE :financialagentltd@gmail.com  

    ReplyDelete
  47. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease/sales, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers. We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description. The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee/Standby Letter of Credit will be paid after the delivery of the MT760, Description OF INSTRUMENTS: 1. Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC) 2. Total Face Value: Eur/USD 5M MIN and Eur/USD 10B MAX (Ten Billion EURO/USD). 3. Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay's bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt. 4. Age: One Year, One Month 5. Purchasing Price: 32% of face value plus 2% commission fees Leasing Price: 4% of Face Value plus 1% commission fees. 6. Delivery: Bank to Bank swift. 7. Payment: MT-103 or MT760 8. Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days. We are ready to close leasing/Buying with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me Name : PAUL DAVID Email: pauldavid20001@gmail.com Skype: P_david123@outlook.com whatsapp:+447921551354

    ReplyDelete
  48. Genuine provider for BG/SBLC specifically for lease, at leasing price of 4+2 of face value, Issuance by HSBC London/Hong Kong or any other AA rated Bank in Europe, Middle East or USA.

    Contact : Mr. EASON RONNIE
    Email: easonronnie9@gmail.com
    skype : keatcheng2@gmail.com

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    Whatsapp: +19893413179

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  52. Dear Sir,

    I am a direct Mandate to a genuinely renowned Investment Finance Company offering Cash & Asset Backed Financial Instruments on Lease and Sale at the best rates and with the most feasible procedures.

    Instruments offered can be put in all forms of trade and can be monetized or discounted for direct funding. For Inquiry contact.

    Kind revert to have our working terms for further proceedings.

    Email: casimertucholski193@birdlover.com

    Warm Regards
    Tucholski Casimer

    ReplyDelete