tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1684157780354336888.post8433842015728829715..comments2024-03-19T07:29:32.762+01:00Comments on Physics Perspective: Steve Keen on "bad weathermen"Mark Buchananhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11288455251267863265noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1684157780354336888.post-10725981569825151542014-10-15T10:53:50.196+02:002014-10-15T10:53:50.196+02:00The Dutch service provider LiveSafe provides a mob...The Dutch service provider LiveSafe provides a mobile alarm device which is activated by pressing the alarm button. Within a few seconds contact is made with the alarm centre. <a href="http://www.choetech.com/qi-wireless-charging-solution-reveiver-module/" rel="nofollow">QI Wireless Charging Solution</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09687563594887232736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1684157780354336888.post-89386300794748092192014-06-03T18:11:59.659+02:002014-06-03T18:11:59.659+02:00There are many, many reasons that you need to be p...There are many, many reasons that you need to be protected by insurance as a homeowner. Even if someone is trespassing on your property and gets attacked by your dog, you could be on the hook for the hospital bills. <a href="https://www.passbeemedia.com/buy-ibeacon/" rel="nofollow">USB Low cost Ibeacons</a>Legal Herbal Onlinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08317644257857133214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1684157780354336888.post-69826357917566529012014-03-02T07:38:36.899+01:002014-03-02T07:38:36.899+01:00Keep sharing such ideas in the future as well. Thi... Keep sharing such ideas in the future as well. This was actually what I was looking for, and I am glad to came here! Thanks for sharing the such information with us.<a href="http://www.twins4fashion.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.twins4fashion.com</a> | <br><br /><a href="http://www.virtueshopping.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.virtueshopping.com</a> | <br><br /><a href="http://www.ladys-fashion-wholesale.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.ladys-fashion-wholesale.com</a> | <br><br /><a href="http://www.fashionstrendsetter.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.fashionstrendsetter.com</a> | <br><br /><a href="http://www.feshionhouse.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.feshionhouse.com</a> | <br><br /><a href="http://www.healthygina.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.healthygina.com</a> | <br><br /><a href="http://www.corehealthcaretechnologies.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.corehealthcaretechnologies.com</a> | <br><br /><a href="http://www.polefitnesstudio.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.polefitnesstudio.com</a> | <br><br /><a href="http://www.surfing-fitness.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.surfing-fitness.com</a> | <br><br /><a href="http://www.achievefitnessbootcamp.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.achievefitnessbootcamp.com</a> | <br><br /><a href="http://www.alexhuardfitness.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.alexhuardfitness.com</a> | <br><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10108809794771915520noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1684157780354336888.post-29265378669903156562013-02-25T19:26:06.108+01:002013-02-25T19:26:06.108+01:00Actually, economists are better at forecasting the...Actually, economists are better at forecasting the weather than meteorologisits: <a href="http://economiclogic.blogspot.co.at/2013/02/forecasting-weather-using-market.html" rel="nofollow">Economic Logic post</a>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1684157780354336888.post-68477418586823523392013-01-14T18:36:19.485+01:002013-01-14T18:36:19.485+01:00Hi Ken,
Good questions! Weather-inspired economic...Hi Ken,<br /><br />Good questions! Weather-inspired economic/financial models of the kind I envision don't really exist yet, although we have quite a few simplified models that show the kind of things that might be done. A good example is the model I wrote about here (http://physicsoffinance.blogspot.co.uk/2011/07/leverage-control-for-market-stability.html) which looks at how leverage can grow in a market through competition as investment funds try to attract investors. The ultimate outcome is closely akin to a storm - the market becomes highly unstable and you have an eventual crash. The high likelihood of such a crash is predictable, although the precise timing is not (this does depend on a random triggering fluctuation, creating a kind of nucleation event). <br /><br />Now, this is just a conceptual model -- akin to something a computational fluid dynamics person might run to explore fundamental aspects of some complex flow pattern. Using this kind of model to actually do something more like weather forecasting would require the availability of much better real time data on the behaviours and strategies in use by firms in the market. This would require new regulation to make this kind of data available. <br /><br />On the matter of predicting actual stock movements and rice trajectories, I'm not sure that will be possible. The kinds of prediction I think will be possible is just what you mention - prediction of more global properties and collective modes of behaviour. For example, we might use models to probe and predict the existence of boundaries of stability for markets or economies that would be dangerous to cross (too much leverage, too much clustering of different people or funds in the space of investing strategies, etc). And, with real data, it might be possible to track an economy or market and get early warnings of an approach toward boundaries. Mark Buchananhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11288455251267863265noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1684157780354336888.post-87992318964529833822013-01-14T16:00:19.841+01:002013-01-14T16:00:19.841+01:00Mark, I just found your blog. Quite interesting!
...Mark, I just found your blog. Quite interesting!<br /><br />I have little experience with these modern weather models (Other than seeing their output on TV screens). Are they actually geospatial system dynamic models with stocks and flows? Is there a Monte Carlo component -- a random number generator and assumed distribution from which it's drawn?<br /><br />Also, it seems as if you assume that stock price time series will be as forecastable as the track of an already-formed hurricane. What if it's more like an earthquake: a critical-state system with an upcoming phase change at an unforecastable time? <br /><br />More importantly, how do we know when we have one type of forecasting problem vs. the other?Ken Chttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05323287296292133518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1684157780354336888.post-76818244483163600932013-01-14T14:20:24.028+01:002013-01-14T14:20:24.028+01:00Have you read the book from Nate Silver, "The...Have you read the book from Nate Silver, "The signal and the noise" already? It has many analogies between these two, too.vonjdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12488764399725481497noreply@blogger.com