Inspiration from physics for thinking about economics, finance and social systems
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
Defending economists -- from themselves
I am on occasion a fairly harsh critic of modern economics, for many reasons. I think economists use the concept of efficiency in a slapdash manner. I think they make a fetish of rigorous mathematics even when they gain no insight from it; it's too often imported as a tool to impress others, rather than as a legitimate means to understanding (see the absurd Appendices of this paper, for example, proving various irrelevant theorems about Markov processes). I think economists (most of them) don't make use of enough modern mathematics from dynamical systems theory.
I also think economists often infect their social analysis with their own subjective values, even while mistakenly and dangerously believing otherwise (as a result of their training). I think the modelling assumption of rational expectations, for agents dealing with anything but the simplest environments, is just a silly idea. I would go so far as to say that I think many economists don't appreciate basic elements of scientific method, preferring the logical beauty (?) of deductive theories to empirically relevant ones. Etc. Read almost anything I've written on this blog for similarly critical opinions.
But I do, just the same, also think there's lots of good and useful economics, some of it even beautiful. And I think economists themselves should do a better job standing up for it. Some very prominent and well known economists are giving the field a bad name. Let me explain.
Read the whole thing at Medium.
To make money from Commodity Silver Tips you firstly need to pick the right market direction. Then you need the market to make a sizeable move. And finally you need this to happen in a relatively short period of time, before expiry of the option.
ReplyDeleteMedium Tedium: just wondering what exactly is the point in posting a couple of paragraphs on your blog before redirecting readers to Medium? Linking to a Bloomberg article is one thing, but for a regular post it's not clear why you can't just post the whole thing here on your blog? The extra level of indirection seems like a needless irratation! (Disgusted, Tunbridge Wells)
ReplyDelete"I think [economists] make a fetish of rigorous mathematics even when they gain no insight from it..."
ReplyDeleteA pertinent quote from Andrew Lang:
"Politicians use statistics in the same way that a drunk uses lamp-posts—for support rather than illumination."
Unfortunately not all the people are good at their specific. Also there're many not very good economists. But I'd like to say that nowadays each of us should be an economist for himself. Because there're lots of ways to earn and loose money. For example I can recommend a good on-line service that gives Canada payday loans. For me it's very convenient when I need quick extra money. There's no need to show the credit history, to apply for the loan you just need to confirm your solvency.
ReplyDelete