Sunday, July 10, 2016

The (un)Wisdom of Crowds

Does the Wisdom of Crowds work for elections? Should we think that the result of the British Brexit vote, because it was a free vote put to the people, was not only democracy in action, but also a wise method for a nation to make such a decision?

I've touched on this matter in my latest Bloomberg View column, drawing on a new study on group decision making by researchers from the Santa Fe Institute and the Max Planck Institute for Human development in Berlin. This study asks under what conditions we should expect larger crowds to make better decisions, and finds that, in general, this is only the case when the problems being faced are relatively easy -- so that any any individual has greater than 50% chance of getting the right answer. When problems are diffficult, the wisdom of crowds tends to fail, and small groups make better decisions.

Most importantly, they find that if the problems faced by a group come in an unpredictable mixture of easy and hard -- the more realistic case -- then the best decisions are made by groups of fairly small size, ranging from 10 to 40 or so. This insight doesn't apply directly to the UK referendum, which didn't necessarily have a right or wrong answer, but I think it does back up the view that a referendum is an extremely crude means for a nation to decide such as complex matter as whether to stay in the EU or not. As the researchers point out, many democratic decision making bodies around the world -- from juries to town councils to parliamentary committees -- make decisions with a fairly small number of people, usally from 5 to 40. There may be good wisdom in this.

And maybe it suggests that the best path forward for the UK is for parliament to weigh the decision to leave the EU using all its resources, and not being constrained in advance by the referendum result. Whether they ultimately decide to leave or to stay, that also would be democracy in action.

The Bloomberg thing is here.

38 comments:

  1. Laqod kaana lakum fii rasulillahi uswatun hasanah gamat qnc

    ReplyDelete
  2. Epic Research provides free trial for 2 days for equities, commodity and forex market.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I totally agree with an author - little group of people will be more effective in decision making than crowds. I like your site, I like that it always offers some great ideas about the economy, finance or politics. Please keep it good posting. If you need any paper advice - professionals at http://www.custom-paper-writing.org will help you at any suitable time!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks for sharing this valuable information to our vision. You have posted a trust worthy blog keep sharing.


    monkey go happy| play mahjong| yahtzee with buddies| defend your nuts 2 | superfighters 2 | happy wheels| cat mario 4 | bloons tower defense 5 | cat mario

    ReplyDelete
  5. Personalize children canvas name - can it have photos as well, with name and message ? Like the one we getmoney transfer rates

    ReplyDelete
  6. Bissmillah, Allohumma Yassir Walaa Tu'assir :) Thanks for the information, Very useful
    cara mengobati luka basah supaya cepat kering

    ReplyDelete
  7. I liked the digital version and quite enjoyed watching it too. I have a good information on made in America products after watching the presentation.Walgreens Prescription Refill

    ReplyDelete
  8. Happy New Year Messages 2017 Facebook & Whatsapp- What is the new year? Happy new year is one of the best events. It is celebrated on the day of first January. According to the public, this is the day Thanksgiving day Clipart
    Happy Thanksgiving Wishes 2016
    Merry Christmas Images 2016
    happy new year images when new calendar starts of the year. January first is one of the important days because this is a day when we just leave the past and going to enter a new life.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Though most of us recognize the value of boosting web traffic, we struggle tremendously with implementing it. It’s not enough to simply create a fantastic website or gain social media followers. Even nuggets of outstanding content displayed proudly on your website won’t do the trick.Go for more details.. wordpress custom theme

    ReplyDelete
  10. My good people hear my good new, i am an one of the Agents sent by the
    Lord superior Grand master to bring as many of those who are interested in
    becoming a member of the great illuminati temple, Becoming a Member of the
    illuminati. your qualifications are, Only those who can provide service for
    themselves, like the Politicians, Musicians, Business Man/Woman, student
    workers, traders ETC, and you want to be rich, powerful and be famous in
    life.You can achieve your dreams by becoming a member of the illuminati,
    and also get instant amount of $8 million dollars with a free home anywhere
    you choose to live in the whole world, and a free triple visa to travel to
    any country in the world, and a ring of riches, power will be given to you
    immediately after your initiation, i do business, I own a Construction
    company, and i also own one of the Biggest Electronic Appliance shop, and
    my family now lives in USA, i was once like you, me & my wife were
    financially down to 1 square meal a day, what kind of life was that to
    live, I lived in poverty until i saw an opportunity to be a member of the
    GREAT TEMPLE OF illuminati BROTHERHOOD and i took my chances and i have
    been a member for close to 10 years now. The higher you go the richer you
    become, it makes your business grow faster than you can ever imagine,
    illuminati brings out the talent in you and make you famous, as you become
    a member of illuminati order you will receive $8,000,000 US DOLLARS
    instantly on your Bank Account, there are many more other benefits you can
    stand to gain, so if you are interested to be a member contact us now on
    +2348119269460 or EMAIL: jonesilluminati92@gmail.com JOIN US TODAY &
    BECOME RICH, POWERFUL AND FAMOUS ALL YOUR LIFE

    ReplyDelete
  11. This is a amazing inspiring composition.I am gorgeous plenty pleased among your salubrious process.You put truly really cooperative info.Standing Mat

    ReplyDelete
  12. Phu Quoc is ranked as one of the most beautiful islands in the Southeast Asia. Coming here, tourists have an occasion to admire stunning beaches and take part a range of activities such as scuba diving, fishing and so on.beach bungalow in phu quocVisiting the website of Halongbaydaytour, tourists will be surely satisfied with our system of information. The website offers four main types of information including foods and drinks, Halong bay guide, Halong hotels and news & events.Our guides to luxury cruises in Halong Bay.

    ReplyDelete
  13. The blog is absolutely truly incredible. Lots of large information and inspiration, both of which we all need.
    Bangalore Web Designing Company, Web Development Company Bangalore

    ReplyDelete
  14. It was a great information and Its really worth enough reading it. The author did an mind blowing work by describing each and every concept in detail. Thanks for such an informative post. Please keep up your good work.
    Marine Colleges in Chennai, Engineering Colleges In Chennai

    ReplyDelete
  15. Pretty article! I found some useful information in your blog, it was awesome to read, thanks for sharing this great content to my vision, keep sharing.SEO jobs in Hyderabad

    ReplyDelete
  16. Banks thought they could designate MERS as their "chosen one" and if a property holder defaulted on their advance, MERS would be the abandoning expert. This is the MERS act. Be that as it may, here's the place the act separates. Since MERS is just the candidate, MERS doesn't really possess the advance. car title loans chicago

    ReplyDelete
  17. I am very happy when read this blog post because blog post written in good manner and write on good topic. Thanks for sharing valuable information.
    UI Design Companies in Bangalore, Web Application Development Companies in Bangalore

    ReplyDelete
  18. My name is Mrs Sharon Sim. I live in Singapore and i am a happy woman today? and i told my self that any lender that rescue my family from our poor situation, i will refer any person that is looking for loan to him, he gave me happiness to me and my family, i was in need of a loan of S$250,000.00 to start my life all over as i am a single mother with 3 kids I met this honest and GOD fearing man loan lender that help me with a loan of S$250,000.00 SG. Dollar, he is a GOD fearing man, if you are in need of loan and you will pay back the loan please contact him tell him that is Mrs Sharon, that refer you to him. contact Dr Purva Pius,via email:(urgentloan22@gmail.com)

    ReplyDelete
  19. Are you in need of a loan? Do you want to pay off your bills? Do you want to be financially stable? All you have to do is to contact us for more information on how to get started and get the loan you desire. This offer is open to all that will be able to repay back in due time. Note-that repayment time frame is negotiable and at interest rate of 3% just email us (urgentloan22@gmail.com)

    ReplyDelete
  20. I actually appreciate your own position and I will be sure to come back here. I hope people visit my website.
    GirlsGoGames

    ReplyDelete
  21. Your blog is really very interesting information regarding real estate.

    Bhartiya City Nikoo Homes
    Mantri Serenity

    ReplyDelete
  22. Thanks for the information your article brings. I see the novelty of your writing, I will share it for everyone to read together. I look forward to reading many articles from you.
    fb login

    ReplyDelete
  23. شركة نقل عفش
    اهم شركات مكافحة حشرات بالخبر كذلك معرض اهم شركة مكافحة حشرات بالدمام والخبر والجبيل والخبر والاحساء والقطيف كذلك شركة رش حشرات بالدمام ومكافحة الحشرات بالخبر
    شركة مكافحة حشرات بالدمام
    شركة تنظيف خزانات بجدة الجوهرة من افضل شركات تنظيف الخزانات بجدة حيث ان تنظيف خزانات بجدة يحتاج الى مهارة فى كيفية غسيل وتنظيف الخزانات الكبيرة والصغيرة بجدة على ايدى متخصصين فى تنظيف الخزانات بجدة
    شركة تنظيف خزانات بجدة
    شركة كشف تسربات المياه بالدمام
    شركة نقل عفش واثاث

    ReplyDelete

  24. شركة نقل عفش بالرياض وجدة والدمام والخبر والجبيل اولقطيف والاحساء والرياض وجدة ومكة المدينة المنورة والخرج والطائف وخميس مشيط وبجدة افضل شركة نقل عفش بجدة نعرضها مجموعة الفا لنقل العفش بمكة والخرج والقصيم والطائف وتبوك وخميس مشيط ونجران وجيزان وبريدة والمدينة المنورة وينبع افضل شركات نقل الاثاث بالجبيل والطائف وخميس مشيط وبريدة وعنيزو وابها ونجران المدينة وينبع تبوك والقصيم الخرج حفر الباطن والظهران
    شركة نقل عفش بجدة
    شركة نقل عفش بالمدينة المنورة
    شركة نقل اثاث بالرياض
    شركة نقل عفش بالدمام

    ReplyDelete

  25. شركة نقل عفش
    اهم شركات مكافحة حشرات بالخبر كذلك معرض اهم شركة مكافحة حشرات بالدمام والخبر والجبيل والخبر والاحساء والقطيف كذلك شركة رش حشرات بالدمام ومكافحة الحشرات بالخبر
    شركة مكافحة حشرات بالدمام
    شركة تنظيف خزانات بجدة الجوهرة من افضل شركات تنظيف الخزانات بجدة حيث ان تنظيف خزانات بجدة يحتاج الى مهارة فى كيفية غسيل وتنظيف الخزانات الكبيرة والصغيرة بجدة على ايدى متخصصين فى تنظيف الخزانات بجدة
    شركة تنظيف خزانات بجدة
    شركة كشف تسربات المياه بالدمام
    شركة نقل عفش واثاث

    ReplyDelete
  26. شركة نقل عفش بالرياض وجدة والدمام والخبر والجبيل اولقطيف والاحساء والرياض وجدة ومكة المدينة المنورة والخرج والطائف وخميس مشيط وبجدة افضل شركة نقل عفش بجدة نعرضها مجموعة الفا لنقل العفش بمكة والخرج والقصيم والطائف وتبوك وخميس مشيط ونجران وجيزان وبريدة والمدينة المنورة وينبع افضل شركات نقل الاثاث بالجبيل والطائف وخميس مشيط وبريدة وعنيزو وابها ونجران المدينة وينبع تبوك والقصيم الخرج حفر الباطن والظهران
    شركة نقل عفش بجدة
    شركة نقل عفش بالمدينة المنورة
    شركة نقل اثاث بالرياض
    شركة نقل عفش بالدمام

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hi
    I read your post.this article was very effective and helpful to us. thanks for sharing this amazing article. I am resently
    posted at prince zamira,Ladies totes

    ReplyDelete
  28. Oh yes the problem i need to find. Your article provides useful information that i am looking for. I will often visit this site.
    wingsio

    ReplyDelete